Reconstruction for a better future of Ukraine: identification of key risks

About the project:

ToP has successfully implemented a project of conducting a research and developing a report on the current status of provision of aid to Ukraine with the focus on safeguarding human rights, addressing basic humanitarian needs, creating conditions for social development and restoring economic capacity. The project was sponsored by the Save the Children International organization, was launched in June 2023 and completed in September 2023.

The project was designed to analyze some of the available research and publications on providing aid to facilitate Ukraine’s recovery from the massive losses caused by the Russian invasion and to advance the discussion forward and outline the principles of Ukraine’s recovery that is human-centric, child-centric, transparent, and built back better for future generations.

The developed report has provided a clear Ukraine’s economy snapshot, focusing on forecasts on a gradual recovery of the Ukrainian economy, with the EBRD’s estimates for external financing to be sufficient to cover large external and fiscal financing gaps and the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) improved its economic growth forecast for 2023 (from 0.3% to 2.0%), as well as the World Bank expecting 0.5% GDP growth in 2023.

The paper also provided the timely assessment of damages and recovery needs, addressed the current and target recovery mechanisms and proposed key principles of recovery as a set of criteria that may be used to test specific recovery mechanisms, ideas and projects, which include:

1. Ongoing financial support is needed to keep the Ukrainian economy running in parallel to any major reconstruction.

2. Aligned with EU accession (reconstruction plans should be used to bring the country’s infrastructure as well as institutions to the EU standards and the recovery process must be aligned with critical reforms)

3. Owned by Ukraine coordinated by the government and partners.

4. Transparent and accountable. The recovery process should use open and efficient systems that allow international donors to follow along, monitor spending, and be assured that their money is being spent fairly and efficiently.

5. Equitable and inclusive. Recovery should be human-centered and child-centered. It should include extensive consultations to respond to the needs of affected populations.

6. Renewal and not repairs.

7. Balancing urgent needs and medium- to long-term goals.

8. Maximising private financing for green and resilient recovery. The scale of investment needed for Ukraine’s reconstruction will be substantial and will require leveraging limited public and donor funding with private investment.

The report developed key human-centric recovery suggestions:

1. Participation of affected populations in relevant decision-making processes.

2. Setting specific human-centric objectives related to the inclusion of children, women, IDPs, and other marginalized groups in decision-making processes in various program documents and the National Recovery Plan.

3. Prioritizing policies and measures that will protect and ensure equitable access of children, women of all ages, girls, and marginalized groups to services they need and opportunities to rebuild their lives.

4. Expanding community engagement activities, such as focus-group discussions, as well as sharing relevant data and analysis by civil society, and local and international humanitarian actors, who currently have the greatest access to communities affected by the war.

5. Educational activities aimed at accelerated and catch-up learning.

6. Mental health and psychosocial support.

7. Ensure care reform efforts are holistic and inclusive of persons with disabilities.

8. Build-Back-Better approaches to ensure reconstruction beyond pre-war capacity - i.e. restoring public services, and rural and urban infrastructure with regard to children, immobile people, girls, and women’s needs.

9. Increasing the volume and improve on the quality of funding to CSOs representing marginalized groups, including to WROs/WLOs, to help them restart their pre-war programs, ensuring hard-won gains on gender equality are not lost while continuing to deliver critical life-saving services as long as necessary.